H2020 SUPREMA Project: Support for the modeling of relevant agricultural policies
- Type Project
- Status Filled
- Execution 2018 -2020
- Assigned Budget 999.823,75 €
- Scope Europeo
- Main source of financing H2020
- Project website Proyecto SUPREMA
Supply chain characteristics and the behavior of its various actors are important for understanding the evolution of the price differential between agriculture and retail. Its impact is potentially far-reaching and encompasses issues such as standards (e.g., food safety, environmental, animal welfare), contractual arrangements (including sustainability requirements), and price formation and transmission. SUPREMA concludes that more efforts are needed to model supply chains, rather than integrating them into existing models. Models with adequate representation of land use and forestry are important for any assessment related to the bioeconomy. The capacity to model biofuels has improved substantially.
However, modeling the introduction of bio-based materials and chemicals remains challenging, at least in part due to the high heterogeneity of these products and rapid technological change. The current state of biodiversity modeling remains quite poor. Efforts are needed to improve agricultural modeling capacity by introducing cutting-edge ecological knowledge (e.g., especially in relation to assessing the impacts of CAP measures). Furthermore, land use and management practices are important in the context of climate change mitigation options. SUPREMA quantified the coefficient of variation between pre- and post-model linkage. Some model linkages in SUPREMA showed relatively poor results, which could support evidence that linkages are too weak or even not implemented correctly. This issue is addressed in the roadmap for future directions for modeling. A summary of access to the SUPREMA website ( https://suprema-project.eu/ ) for the year 2020 is presented. In total, approximately 3,040 unique visitors were recorded between January and November 2020, with approximately 93,000 page views and 22,000 page downloads. CAPRI training materials were improved, and AGMEMOD organized a three-day training program to expand its network. Some models also benefited from the experience in organizing virtual events.
Various exploitation and dissemination actions, including:
- Three scientific-political workshops on research needs, narratives, and strategic perspectives.
- Documentation and training on modeling tools for policy support.
- Three meetings of the External Advisory Board to provide feedback on the results.
All of these actions are important ways to help close the gap between policymakers' expectations and the actual capacity of models to generate policy-relevant analysis. The SUPREMA consortium recommends that this type of networking be essential for comparing, linking, and improving models.
Impact assessments in the agricultural sector are (in part) based on projections delivered by models. Sectoral policies are increasingly interlinked. Therefore, there is a need to improve the capacity of current models, connect or redesign them to meet an ever-increasing variety of policy objectives, and explore future directions for agricultural modeling in Europe. SUPREMA takes a forward-looking approach to bridging the gap between policymakers' expectations and strengthening existing and establishing new links between models.
SUPREMA offers scope for improving existing models and establishing new links between models. Data management is addressed, as are future model governance structures. SUPREMA worked in light of the political agenda with an increasing diversity of policy areas (e.g., the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), environmental and climate policies, the Green Deal, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
SUPREMA proposes a food systems approach, which includes input companies, farmers, traders, processors, retailers, and consumers.
Primary production modelling could be improved by:
- better representation of production activities and sectors (e.g., fruits, vegetables, and Mediterranean products) and products under EU quality schemes.
- Better representation of inputs (e.g., fertilizers, antibiotics) and production costs.
- The adoption of voluntary policy measures, farm management practices, and technological innovations. More efforts are needed to better understand the adoption of technological and social innovations at the farm level (e.g., endogenous technological change, incorporation of R&D investments into macroeconomic models).
Models with adequate representation of land use and forestry are increasingly important for any assessment of the evolution and contribution of the bioeconomy. SUPREMA provides a roadmap exploring future directions for agricultural modeling in the EU. It offers scope for improving existing models and establishing new links between them.
In addition to climate change mitigation, greater attention must also be paid to preserving and strengthening biodiversity. SUPREMA was able to gradually narrow the gap between policymakers' expectations and modeling capacity. Update workshops on project progress, meetings with the External Advisory Board, and a webinar to present and discuss the final results were crucial to achieving these goals.
The models' current governance structures are compared to develop recommendations on how to move toward a more sustainable business model if they are lagging behind. Open source access is explored, which will continue and have implications for future model governance structures.
Impact assessments in agricultural areas are (in part) based on projections delivered by models. Sectoral policies are increasingly intertwined. Therefore, there is a need to improve the capacity of current models, connect or redesign them to meet an ever-increasing variety of policy objectives, and explore future directions for agricultural modeling in Europe.
SUPREMA addresses this challenge by proposing a meta-platform that supports modeling groups already connected through several other platforms and networks. SUPREMA should help bridge the gap between policymakers' expectations and the actual capacity of models to deliver policy-relevant analysis.
The SUPREMA model family includes a set of "core models" already used to support key European impact assessments in agricultural, trade, climate, and bioenergy policies. The metaplatform, the enhanced linked system of existing core models, and some key applications merge into a roadmap for future directions for agricultural modeling in Europe.
The project has four coherent objectives:
- A SUPREME roadmap of future directions for modeling will be developed.
- An improved and strengthened SUPREMA model family will be created.
- Future directions of modeling in agriculture will be explored and tested.
- A SUPREMA meta-platform will be established to share and discuss the findings of this work with existing model platforms, research communities, and policymakers. SUPREMA's objectives are iterative in nature and involve strong engagement with policymakers and interaction with the scientific community at different stages. The models included in SUPREMA cover different spatial scales of analysis, agricultural activities, and technology representation, as well as different aspects of their market environment, as well as multiple policies that directly or indirectly affect agriculture.
Achieving climate neutrality by 2050 is a key objective of the Green Deal, which requires better representation of adaptation and mitigation measures in agriculture, including their uptake and diffusion. Cost-effective solutions could be designed by quantifying the marginal abatement cost curves of mitigation measures. The results show that modest mitigation efforts outside the EU could result in EU farmers maintaining their global competitiveness despite the EU's ambitious mitigation policy.
The medium-term agricultural policy scenarios up to 2030 focus on various measures, including greening measures with enhanced cross-compliance and eco-schemes, changes to CAP budgets (e.g., capping, redistribution), and voluntary coupled support. The model's findings emphasize the importance of implementing environmental, biodiversity, and climate policies in a targeted manner. Furthermore, substitution and spillover effects can, at the regional level, create differences in the direction of policy impacts.
The consortium is interested in following up and creating a network on agricultural modeling, thereby improving policy support at the European level, and will explore the possibility of organizing a workshop in Brussels on agricultural modeling for policy support. The consortium will develop a plan for 2021.
- STICHTING WAGENINGEN RESEARCH (WR)
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