H2020 FORECAST Project: Predicting the responses of mixed forests to climate change and water stress using a plant hydraulic model

The frequency and intensity of droughts are expected to increase in many regions of the world due to global climate change. Droughts can lead to widespread tree mortality, leading to a loss of forest carbon stores that, in turn, will exacerbate climate change. Therefore, modeling forest responses to drought is critical for predicting the socioeconomic and ecological impacts of climate change and informing conservation strategies. However, current models are unable to adequately represent forest responses to drought, especially for mixed forests, due to their diversity of species and functional traits. The proposed research aims to address this problem by developing a model for mixed forests based on known biophysical constraints, plant functional traits, and optimization theory.

The performance of the model will be evaluated with:

• Detailed measurements in Hayedo de Montejo (HM), a mixed Mediterranean forest with diverse functional traits.
• Data from a network of eddy covariance towers measuring ecosystem fluxes.
• Mortality data from two national forest inventories covering a wide range of forest types.

The model will then be used to forecast the vulnerability of HM to different climate change scenarios to guide the conservation of this World Heritage Site. I will develop this project at the Polytechnic University of Madrid, one of Europe's leading academic institutions. A secondment at the Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (Barcelona) will allow me to learn new modeling approaches, gain access to global plant databases, and establish new collaborations. A secondment at the Directorate General for Environment and Sustainability of the Community of Madrid, a non-academic institution in charge of HM management, will ensure intersectoral knowledge transfer between scientists, educators, managers, and policymakers. This MSCA will facilitate my return to Europe and increase my chances of obtaining a permanent position in Europe.