H2020 IMPREX Project: Improving Predictions and Management of Hydrological Extremes
- Type Project
- Status Filled
- Execution 2015 -2019
- Assigned Budget 7.996.848,00 €
- Scope Europeo
- Main source of financing H2020
- Project website Proyecto IMPREX
A selection of IMPREX scientific outputs includes: Leading institutes have contributed to the development of global and regional NWP systems. Improved post-processing of the GLOSEA5 seasonal forecasting system contributed to drought risk outlooks for the Júcar and Segura basins in Spain.
Data assimilation into the Harmonie regional NWP system has enabled the inclusion of new snow information for hydropower forecasts. A "surrogate heating" experiment has demonstrated the applicability of high-resolution convective-resolving regional climate models for future climate applications. This provided an alternative to using a large and expensive array for urban flood risk assessment in Italy and for exploring the impacts of climate change on drinking water production in Spain. Several new concepts have been developed.
In the Netherlands, a comprehensive evaluation of the role of compound events for water management by regional water authorities has been carried out, resulting in guidance on modified risk assessment procedures for regional water security and/or water resource policies. A revised water resource allocation scheme based on current and future damage risk has been designed, modifying risk assessment procedures for water allocation problems in the Netherlands and Spain. Sectoral application developments include: A novel probabilistic flood damage model enables flood risk assessment using a much more accurate picture of actual flood damage. A systematic evaluation of the economic value of using perfect or operational forecasts for hydropower operation has been carried out, demonstrating that an economic gain of a few percent of the annual turnover can be achieved, depending on local conditions. A pre-operational probabilistic forecasting system has been implemented to support decision-making in the Rhine navigation sector. The forecasts range from short-term to monthly timescales and are actively used by various stakeholders in the area.
The development of a navigation cost structure model enables a systematic assessment of forecast value for different operational strategies. Short-term forecasts of raw water turbidity reduced the cost of chemical treatments at a Spanish drinking water treatment plant (DWTP). A methodology for controlling the risk of algal growth to reduce health risks was also designed, along with a series of climate change projections focused on future droughts and algal growth tailored to DWTPs. Drought indices expressing socioeconomic impacts, rather than hydrometeorological aspects, are defined for selected catchments in Spain and Italy. The FRIDA tool uses machine learning to calibrate drought conditions, based on impact, to local catchment characteristics. An updated water accounting system improves the comparability of water resource characteristics for large river catchments across Europe by standardizing input, output, and water consumption metrics. A novel mapping of the European economy's sensitivity to remote climate effects reveals an influential dependence of European well-being and economy on global climate patterns. The water footprint of climate hotspots in food production has been identified.
Current water management in many sectors must be able to cope with extreme hydrological conditions. Furthermore, the impacts of global warming on water resources have become a serious concern for water resource managers and decision-makers. The limited predictability of these extreme events over sufficiently long timeframes generates considerable social vulnerability, also in the face of the imminent increase in the frequency and severity of extreme events in the future. "Learning from today to anticipate the future" has been a guiding principle during the preparation and implementation phase of IMPREX.
Scientific advances encompassed a fundamental understanding of drivers and processes, advanced model development, fine-tuning and evaluation of existing practical tools and approaches, and the assessment of (cross-)sectoral risks and policy implications. We worked with a wide range of stakeholders, many of whom were linked to project partners through previous professional interactions. In specific case studies, tools and procedures were explored to optimize stakeholders' decision-making processes. Furthermore, (seasonal) forecasts and climate information tailored to their environments were developed.
Improving the Predictions and Management of Hydrological Extremes To better anticipate future high-impact hydrological extremes that will disrupt citizen safety, agricultural production, transport, energy production and urban water supply, and overall economic productivity, there is a need to improve prediction and forecasting capabilities and their integration into these strategic sectors. IMPREX will improve the forecasting capability of meteorological and hydrological extremes in Europe and their impacts, by applying dynamical model ensembles, process studies, novel data assimilation techniques, and high-resolution modeling. New climate change impact assessment concepts will focus on increasing the realism of relevant events through high-resolution, region-specific downscaling, exploring cross-sectoral and transregional risk combinations, and designing new risk management paradigms.
These advances are demonstrated in impact studies for strategic economic sectors in a series of case studies involving local stakeholders, public organizations, and SMEs. A pan-European assessment of risk management and adaptation strategies is applied, minimizing risk transfer from one sector or region to another. As a key dissemination product, a periodic hydrological risk outlook for Europe is produced, incorporating the dynamic evolution of hydroclimatic and socioeconomic processes. The project scope maximizes the legacy impact of the surveys, targeting European public stakeholders and business networks, including user-friendly assessment summaries and training materials. The project responds to the call by focusing on the quality of short- to medium-term hydrometeorological predictions, improving the reliability of future climate projections, applying this information to strategic sectoral and pan-European surveys at different scales, and evaluating and adapting current risk management strategies. With its integrative approach, IMPREX will link current management decisions and actions to an emerging future.
Sectoral applications and case study examples demonstrate that the knowledge developed by project partners supports risk management and adaptation planning, not only at the regional level, but also at the national and European levels.
Sectoral impacts include:
- Greater interpretation and use of seasonal forecasts in the Júcar and Segura basins.
- Improved flood forecasting through innovations in hydrometeorological modeling equipment and the application of flood damage models.
- Significant adoption of (sub)seasonal forecasts in the river transport sector; increased adoption of short-term probabilistic forecasts in the water treatment sector.
- Mapping the added value potential derived from the use of (seasonal) forecasts by the hydropower sector.
- A study of the current and future climate impact on virtual water trade has highlighted the vulnerability of various food products in Europe.
Furthermore, IMPREX has significantly contributed to the quality of forecasting systems, climate services, and the interactions between science, practice, and policy. Increased awareness of these factors will improve future interactions between science and practice. Stakeholder engagement, forecasting system development, and climate change impact analysis are all activities that require significant time to mature. For some specific applications, IMPREX can present several success stories: IMPREX has engaged public and private partner organizations and end-users to maximize the contribution of customized information to their benefits. Case study evaluations by contributing SMEs (Future Water, HKV, and the startup R2water) have been added to its product portfolio, supporting the development of a business model for climate services. The river transport forecasting service was initially developed as a prototype, but based on very positive stakeholder feedback, the partner BfG has been asked to develop the service into an operational forecasting system. CetAqua's DWTP monitoring and forecasting services are used by Suez at a large number of DWTPs through the HIDROMET platform.
The successful outreach activities were:
- A coherent analysis of European flood and drought risk management policies was conducted, highlighting the usefulness of IMPREX tools and methodologies for implementing EU flood and drought policy frameworks at the basin level.
- Policy briefs were produced on various topics related to these policy areas (Deliverables 13.6 and 14.6).
- For each sector, a fact sheet was developed with the main achievements, tools, and user responses to these results. Fact sheets were also prepared on IMPREX's contribution to forecasting and projection tools and on novel concepts in water-related climate services.
- Further dissemination has been carried out among different target audiences, including a wide range of dissemination channels: scientific articles, conference sessions at, for example, EGU and ECCA, public seminars, press releases, policy advisory sessions (e.g., EU Floods Taskforce), and webinars, all of which contributed to the project's legacy.
- KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT-KNMI (KNMI)
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